Monday, February 1, 2010

The Rankings Updated & Explained

The Rankings have been updated to reflect last weekends action. There are still some scores missing from the GPCIHL, these will be added into next weekends rankings, unless St. Charles lost to St. Louis.


Additionally, viewing the comments the last few weeks, I feel it is time to re-post how the rankings are being calculated so that we can cut down some of the bickering that has been going on about teams not being ranked (Ball State) and teams being ranked ahead of one another (Brockport vs West Chester). The Rankings are not meant to show who the best team is over the past 1-2 weeks, but rather, who the best team has been over the entire season. Last weekend, just based on rankings alone, 93% of higher ranked teams won their games. To me this is a very high number, that shows the rankings are pretty accurate. So please, review what is posted below and avoid the bickering that has been going on.

Enjoy!


How the Rankings are calculated: (As Originally Posted)

Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.

The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.

Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):

Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.

However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.

Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.

As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.

For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
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DI National Rankings - 2/1/2010

#1- Lindenwood University - 2275.70
#2- University at Buffalo - 2161.27
#3- Michigan State University - 2118.06
#4- Arizona State University - 2037.31
#5- University of Missouri-St. Louis - 2028.42
#6- Central Michigan University - 2004.44
#7- University of Louisiana-Layfeyette - 1977.44
#8- University of Rhode Island - 1911.11
#9- University of North Texas - 1882.97
#10- University of Central Florida - 1832.61
#11- Rutgers University - 1795.99
#12- Florida Atlantic University - 1776.67
#13- University of Nevada, Las Vegas - 1766.24
#14- United States Military Academy, West Point - 1654.09
#15- The Ohio State University - 1753.11
#16- North Carolina State University - 1751.95
#17- UC Santa Barbara - 1736.18
#18- Towson University - 1732.04
#19- Long Beach State University - 1702.48
#20- Louisiana Statue University - 1688.16
#21- Colorado State University - 1683.10
#22- University of Connecticut - 1647.17
#23- Sam Hoston State University - 1613.17
#24- Eastern Michigan University - 1577.17
#25- University of Missouri - 1553.96
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DII National Rankings - 2/1/2010

#1- West Chester University - 1876.65
#2- Grand Valley State University - 1852.69
#3- SUNY Brockport - 1792.95
#4- University of Tampa - 1791.88
#5- Rowan University - 1767.75
#6- Neumann University - 1740.93
#7- Missouri State University - 1705.61
#8- SF Austin State - 1701.74
#9- University of Cincinnati - 1700.82
#10- George Mason University - 1629.12
#11- Kennesaw State University - 1628.79
#12- Shippensburg University - 1615.15
#13- UC San Diego - 1608.97
#14- University of Miami - 1603.07
#15- Saint Louis University - 1593.49
#16- Truman State University - 1578.90
#17- Temple University - 1578.43
#18- Metropolitan State College of Denver - 1579.59
#19- University of California, Irvine - 1564.18
#20- University of Northern Colorado - 1555.82
#21- Western Carolina University - 1548.06
#22- Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville - 1533.88
#23- University of Southern California - 1529.43
#24- University of Missouri S&T - 1523.12
#25- Elon University - 1521.79
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Junior College Rankings - 2/1/2010

#1- St. Charles Community College - 1751.40
#2- Saddleback College - 1728.48
#3- Citrus College - 1523.42
#4- St. Louis Community College - 1492.73
#5- Suffolk County Community College - 1439.13

****St.Charles vs St. Louis Game Not Included****
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B Division Rankings - 2/1/10

#1- Penn State University - 1834.44
#2- Lindenwood University Gold - 1779.12
#3- Michigan State University - 1695.20
#4- West Chester University - 1661.66
#5- UC Santa Barbara Gold - 1601.05
#6- Colorado State University - 1566.05
#7- University at Buffalo - 1541.99
#8- Arizona State University - 1539.85
#9- University of Central Florida - 1533.76
#10- Grand Valley State University - 1524.67
#11- Saddleback College - 1521.48
#12- St. Charles Community College - 1514.29
#13- Lindenwood University Black - 1459.50
#14- Temple University - 1457.32
#15- Central Michigan University - 1425.56
#16- Suffolk County Community College - 1401.23
#17- Towson University - 1393.42
#18- University of Michigan - 1382.20
#19- Kennesaw State University - 1358.26
#20- University of North Texas - 1351.73
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The Rankings Explained

Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.

The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.

Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):

Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.

However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.

Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.

As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.

For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.

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