#1 - University at Buffalo - 1643.30
#2 - West Chester University - 1602.46
#3 - University of California, Santa Barbara Gold - 1589.2
#4 - Michigan State University - 1558.81
#5 - Lindenwood University Gold - 1542.27
#6 - Colorado State University - 1527.43
#7 - University of Missouri-St. Louis - 1506.53
#8 - Grand Valley State - 1488.89
#9 - Texas Tech University - 1486.09
#10 - Arizona State University - 1475.12
#11 - University of Central Florida - 1470.89
#12 - Suffolk County CC Gold - 1441.98
#13 - Penn State University - 1440.48
#14 - Lindenwood University Black - 1423.61
#15 - Towson University - 1413.63
#16 - Saddleback College - 1385.51
#17 - Drexel University - 1358.76
#18 - Temple University - 1355.11
#19 - St. Charles CC - 1332.61
#20 - University of California, Santa Barbara Blue - 1331.34
Monday, February 9, 2009
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
15 comments:
Michigan State lost to Grand Valley this past weekend yet they still remain ahead of them 4 spots in the rankings. msu still gained points on the weekend after 3 wins, one against central michigan who is 4-8, one a forfeit and a loss. it seems if the number 12 team beats the # 4 team that the number 4 team should drop/lose points not gain points and the number 12 team should gain more points/ move up more than 4 spots.
This is just a subjective observation as this is the best example of this type of issue that i have noticed in the rankings recently. If you could explain this a little bit I would appreciate it. Thanks
John
First of all, you guys are really doing a great job with this formula. You have played 4 less games than Michigan State. So even though you beat them, you haven't amassed as many points. Second, why would you even say this nonsense when you have to play the same Central Michigan team twice next weekend? Does that mean that you should get even less points because they will have a worse record if you beat them? Finally, look at Michigan State's schedule and who they have already played. that is why they are ranked higher than you... Should be a good game in regionals if the referees are not the deciding factor and the game is played at a neutral site, unlike the first 2 between you guys on your home rinks...
ha. im not trying to pretend that im from grand valley I meant to say this was an objective observation not subjective. no need for you to attack them. this was just an example that i brought up
John (from Indiana)
You think MSU is a bit sensitive about losing to GVSU? From the box score, the penalties don't look that lopsided.
There was a 5 on 2 at the end of the game. Refs weren't on Grand Valley's side and it's ignorant to blame it on them. Also, the refs are the same every where we go in MI, whether the games are played in Cedar Springs or at Joe Dumars.
There was a 5 on 2 at the end of the game. Refs weren't on Grand Valley's side and it's ignorant to blame it on them. Also, the refs are the same every where we go in MI, whether the games are played in Cedar Springs or at Joe Dumars.
first of all I observed the game from the crowd and if your going to try to say that the amount of penalties called per team was equal you should look at the times at which the penalties were called to create the 5 on 2, which to be more accurate was a 4 on 2 and then a pulled goalie. Those penalties were called to make it look equal and were called with not enough time left in the game for it to even matter. Second of all who has grand valley even played besides michigan state? The ranking system is designed to give teams that play cake schedules less points so in that sense it is doing its job. If you were not at the game do not post any comments because you were not there to witness a good michigan state team stay in a game where they played grand valley and more importantly the refs. For those of you who are studying the score sheet please observe the number of goals grand valley scored while michigan state was full strength.
Fair Enough...
The Michigan State/Grand Valley game was worth 18.63 points. Remember, it was a 4-3 "upset" victory. If the game was more than a 1 goal victory more points could have been gained/loss.
Because of Michigan State's 3 other wins last weekend, they were still able to come out of the weekend up 9.86 points.
Grand Valley gained a whopping 56.75 points over the course of the weekend for their really strong play.
It was however, not enough to overtake Michigan State who has played the harder schedule at this point in the season.
The out of region games, plus playing harding opponents more often is why they are ranked 4th and Grand Valley 8th. If Grand Valley keeps winning, they will continue to garner more and more points and may eventually pass Michigan State.
that was the explanation that i was looking for... thanks
John
As it was previously posted, as a member of the crowd viewing the Michigan State vs. Grand Valley State game this past weekend, the game was decided by the referees and not the teams. I can only hope that regionals will not have referees that decide the outcome of the game instead of the players. The teams are closely matched, and in the end, if it is an evenly refereed game, I think Michigan State would prevail due to their ability to score 4 on 4 where it seems Grand Valley relies on it's power play scoring to beat the Spartans.
2 things
1. The officiating always blows. There are like 6 refs in the whole region. so at regionals theres a very good chance that we will again end up playing with the same crappy calls.
2. If you lose the game, be a man. Don't go through the line and not shake your opponents hand(state's goalie). Show some class. Honestly, if you thought grand valley got the game handed to them through the officiating just wait for regionals, we'll beat you again.
The no handshake had nothing to do with the refs, it had to do with the manner in which you conducted yourself on the rink. Play the game like men, with integrity and class, and I will shake your hand like a man. I won't be involved in this worthless squabbling on a blog, but out of respect I have for the league and my opponents, I thought you should know from the source why I would not shake most your hands. I shook your coaches hands, but did not feel you played the game with any respect. Promise me on this board that you will play this game with class, no cheap shots, and nothing dirty after the whistle and I promise you a handshake regardless of an outcome. You guys are a good team, and you beat us whether there was outside factors or not, BUT hopefully we both will come out in a clean game with the refs not being a factor, because I know you guys weren't happy with the calls either. My proposition to you, Grand Valley State University, is that we play this fair, no cheap shots, no stupid penalties, and we let the players on each teams roster decide who is better. No need for anymore smack talk on here, we all understand the calls were bad for us, and I bet you feel the same about yourself. Simply come out at regionals, and we will see who is the better team going into nationals.
Again, anyone can talk on here, it means nothing, lets let our 2 solid teams decide this at regionals and end the issue so everyone across the nation that looks at this see us for our talent, not our complaining.
Out of Respect...
(State's Goalie)
I love the "who has GVSU played?" comment. Well (besides beating OSU and U of M each twice, when both were ranked), all I know is they have played MSU twice and it's pretty much a draw. I guess if GVSU isn't very good, what does that say about MSU? Seriously, these are 2 very good teams and Michiganders, and the Midwest Region, should be proud and wish them both well.
Let's go to regionals!!
But damn it Mike, YOU GOTTA SHAKE MY HAND. I've personally known you too long to expect that kind of attitude. I have a tremendous amount of respect for you and State so at the end of regionals, regardless of the outcome, we finish the game with class and dignity. Me love you long time.
James Trahan
P.S. talking shit on a blog is kinda lame. So whether you're from GVSU or MSU, stop.
James,
I gave you a pat on the tummy by our room as we skated by one another. I expect both teams to come out strong, and that it will be the best hockey of the season. See this everyone? This is how it should be, no need for smack talk, arguing over standings, or any of that. Whoever emerges from the MCRHL as the champ will be the higher seed. Bottom line, we both belong at nationals, so I will see you guys in West Bloomfield.
Mike
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