#1- Lindenwood University - 2117.52
#2- University of Missouri-St. Louis - 2036.66
#3- University at Buffalo - 2012.65
#4- Michigan State University - 1965.62
#5- University of Rhode Island - 1922.00
#6- Central Michigan University - 1910.62
#7- Long Beach State University - 1908.66
#8- University of Louisiana-Layfeyette - 1852.92
#9- University of Central Florida - 1850.62
#10- The Ohio State University - 1820.62
#11- Towson University - 1813.47
#12- Florida Atlantic University - 1802.49
#13- Louisiana State University -1787.21
#14- Rutgers University - 1776.90
#15- UC Santa Barbara - 1751.32
#16- Colorado State University - 1714.77
#17- University of Nevada, Las Vegas - 1691.44
#18- University of Missouri - 1684.82
#19- University of North Texas - 1677.81
#20- University of Michigan - 1670.62
#21- Sam Hoston State University - 1666.12
#22- Arizona State University - 1664.87
#23- Stony Brook University - 1659.74
#24- United States Military Academy, West Point - 1588.24
#25- University of Texas, Dallas - 1579.46
Monday, November 2, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
8 comments:
Appreciate your guys efforts here, just a little constructive criticism...I think you've gotta take into account strength of region a little more here. Southwest with 5 teams in the top 25? No way. Their 3 teams at nationals last year went 2-7 in round robin and nobody made it out of the 1st round. Got to take into account that stuff in some way. ULL did fine at nationals last year but there's no reason to have 5 of their teams in the top 25. No way are the 2nd-5th teams in the southwest better than same level teams in the West and the East.
I agree with the previous post, especially as it pertains to the West. The West is so competitive that even UCI with the Tasch Brothers dropped down to D2. The D1 teams will also have to play the stacked Community College teams as well, which all have Pro Players on them. Both Arizona and Long Beach look really strong.
Definitely should see a lot of movement in new rankings. Important things that I see...
Rutgers ranked #15 with a 2-2 record. That's too high.
Sam Houston State still being ranked with a 2-2 record in the weakest region. They should fall off the top 25.
Arizona State beat 3 teams ranked ahead of them and gave #1 community college in the nation their 1st loss. They should be a big mover.
Stony Brook and Michigan being ranked without a single win on their record. They play in tough regions but without a single win...
Look forward to the new rankings!
Poster 1: Strength of Region is taken into account. Every cross-regional loss hurts and helps give better regions more weight in the rankings. The fact that 5 SCHL teams are in the rankings comes to the fact that a large majority of their teams were not at nationals, for example, LSU and therefore they didn't give away the points they earned during the season competing with the top teams in that region.
Poster 2: UCI dropping to DII does nothing but hurt the other DI teams in the WCRHL. Arizona State should skyrocket after this past weekend, but you need to recall that the previous weekend they played the showing was less than stellar. Once these teams start playing more games the entire formula will work itself out. If you don't think so, just look at the final rankings last year versus performance at nationals.
Poster 3: Playing the community college teams does nothing but help all the DI teams in the WCRHL.
New Rankings will be posted once all the results from this weekend are finalized.
thanks for the feedback, its cool you guys reply and discuss this stuff. its just constructive criticism i think everyone really appreciates the service you guys do.
also dont know if its affecting your "waiting for all results to be finalized" but if youre looking at WCRHL scores, the only ones that arent updated are the games that were postponed for another weekend due to condensation problems with the rink during the earlier/later game times. some were made up at another rink but others were postponed to be played later.
Yeah, the 2 D1 games on Saturday night and the 5 B games at 8am/9am Saturday morning were all not played; all to be rescheduled for another date.
I am guessing that the hold up has to do with the scoring on the Michigan State vs. Michigan game from sunday which says it is still live scoring. Would be really nice if someone could just close that so we could get some rankings because that was the final score...
mich-mich st game is listed as final now.
and wasnt arizona st's only loss a 1 goal game to long beach st?
Post a Comment