#1- West Chester University - 1799.68
#2- Grand Valley State University - 1746.27
#3- University of Tampa - 1737.23
#4- Rowan University - 1735.51
#5- Neumann University - 1693.22
#6- SUNY Brockport - 1690.27
#7- Missouri State University - 1676.83
#8- SF Austin State - 1644.23
#9- George Mason University - 1629.12
#10- University of Cincinnati - 1612.78
#11- Kennesaw State University - 1611.28
#12- UC San Diego - 1608.97
#13- Temple University - 1598.91
#14- Shippensburg University - 1574.83
#15- University of California, Irvine - 1564.18
#16- Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville - 1562.68
#17- Western Carolina University - 1548.00
#18- Saint Louis University - 1536.95
#19- Truman State University - 1532.21
#20- University of Southern California - 1529.43
#21- Slippery Rock University - 1527.07
#22- Elon University - 1521.79
#23- University of Miami - 1517.93
#24- University of Texas, Arlington - 1516.31
#25- University of Northern Colorado - 1510.89
Thursday, November 26, 2009
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
18 comments:
So a team that's ranked 22nd with a record of 2-6 get ranked (Elon)?
And a team like Ball State who went 2-1 in their opening weekend outscoring their opponents 27-8 (losing to the #10 D2 team in the country 6-4) isn't...?
Or how about Metro St - Denver who is leading their dividion at 6-2...? They're not ranked?
I've read how the rankings work and I think there's a serious flaw when ANY 2-6 team is ranked...
yes you are right that elon should not be ranked but the way this system works is that it is based on points that carry over every year, so elon who used to be ranked as high as 3rd in the country is gradually going to fall out of the rankings. another reason why they are still ranked with a 2-6 record is bc 3 of their lossed are to D2 teams that are ranked higher than 15th in the country and a division 1 team. Also Metro St. has only 1 win vs a ranked team with the rest of their wins coming against B teams and other weak teams. Ball St beat 2 weak teams with a loss coming to Cincy, u cant rank a team based on 3 games no matter if they outscored their opponent by 50
Purdue and Miami of Ohio are not great wins. The fact they were able to hang with cincy also doesnt mean they should be ranked. The midwest this year is weak now that Central Michigan moved to D1. I would be suprised if they got more than one D2 bid to nationals this year unless someone proves themselves against Grand Valley State.
The fact that Elon is ahead of Miami is pretty ridiculous considering we beat them easily. In addition if you look at other scores, it seems that Miami should also be ahead of Soyth Carolina, Western Carolina and Kennesaw
its completely mathematical based... dont be mad because you arent ranked ahead of someone. These rankings are just here to add something to the sport. a lot of work goes into these rankings (or went into setting this system up). the rankings will fix themselves after teams play more than 3 or 4 games... stop being so critical about the rankings and appreciate them. if you think you are better than a team then show it on the floor. don't go and yap about it on a blog.
Just for the record, the Argument of Elon vs Miami...Miami started the season almost 200 points higher thank Miami.
In the time period of the games played, That 200 point gap has been reduced to just 4 points, or less than 1 percent of the teams total score.
I also would like to say, that no editing is performed to the rankings based on H2H results. It's a mathematical system and just like any system based on math, there will be some things that don't make sense. Eventually everything works out in the end.
If you doubt the credibility of the rankings formula, take a look at how teams were ranked heading into nationals last season and where they finished.
Metro St-Denver and Northern Colorado were destroyed at nationals last season. They were not in the same class as everyone else, and as a result, took less points back from nationals then they came with. This in turn hurts the regional strength for this season and the only way they can get their strength up is playing some of the top teams around the country and winning.
In regards to Ball State, the teams they beat are ranked 62nd and 70th in the country, those wins don't improve a teams rating at all. Losing to Cincy didn't hurt too badly, but its a long crawl into the rankings.
UNT is raw this year... just sayin
Ball State is a top 15 team without a doubt. Neither Ball State or Cincy have played any teams outside of the MCRHL last year, but the best two D2 teams in the country were in the their division. Having said that, it looks like both teams have significantly improved since last season and beefed up their rosters. I am not saying that the rankings are inaccurate, the math is just not in favor these teams at this point, especially with the MCRHL being much weaker without Central Michigan.
I just don't see how a team can keep points from year to year...it's unfair..
That means a team like Ball State, who has 6 wins in the last 3 years has to have an un-Godly low number...so they basically need to go undefeated to even get back up to 1500 points, right?
You're right, the MCRHL is weak, it's going to be a 3-team race between Grand Valley, Cincinnati and Ball State...
This weekend should sort some of this nonsense out
Some of us (MOST OF US) appreciate the work you are doing. Please dont get discouraged about what these people say.
Thanks
Oh, it's interesting enough. Not saying I don't appreciate the work. Just some flaws I've noticed with the system that favor predominantely strong teams. Kinda like how Notre Dame football seems to get ranked each season....
Yeah!!! complaining about it is pretty lame... and if point weren't carried over from last year, it would take till about the season is over to get any standings, so ill take it... thanks for the work, if you dont like the way its done, open a word document and write your own standings then you look at them all days with a smile...
Ball State blows end of story..... the ranking system is the best that it can, as for those from ball state, win nationals and then you can talk about being ranked. until then just stop complaining and face the facts that you arent going to be ranked, end of story.
To be fair, Ball State is a 2-time National Runner-up.
Some socres:
Grand Valley 9
Ball State 5
Grand Valley 5
Cincinnati 4
The rankings while flawed, give us something to talk about. The time was taken to come up with the formula, the fact that previous performance is factored in obviously sucks for teams that don't have a history of success, but I think its clear that any team can quickly move up the rankings, look at GMU, they are already up to 9th and its clear they are a top DII team. I don't know about the rest of the country, but in the SECRHL Tampa and GMU are at the top, Miami is just behind them, and then there is a decent drop to team 4. I would not be surprised if Miami jumps ahead of Elon and WCU, in early January. Elon is not very good this year, they will fall off the charts by the next ranking. 8-2 vs miami is proof enough. That game wasnt even close, Miami clearly dominated the entire game. WCU has yet to play a good team and their SOS will hurt them. KSU will be harder to jump because they are a solid team that likes to play up north in the SECRHL which is a lot weaker than the south. They will finish with a very strong but misleading record. Not saying they are a bad team. its just that they are not 13-3 National championship conteder good. and yes I know they took us out last year but we are a different team. We got a new captain, a new style, and new jerseys. We expect to be a good team this year and 23 is not a ranking we are going to be satisfied with.
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