#1- West Chester University - 1876.65
#2- Grand Valley State University - 1860.74
#3- SUNY Brockport - 1792.95
#4- University of Tampa - 1791.88
#5- Rowan University - 1767.75
#6- Neumann University - 1740.93
#7- University of Cincinnati - 1732.01
#8- SF Austin State - 1713.20
#9- Missouri State University - 1705.61
#10- University of Miami - 1681.71
#11- UC San Diego - 1675.93
#12- George Mason University - 1629.12
#13- Kennesaw State University - 1628.79
#14- Shippensburg University - 1615.15
#15- Metropolitan State College of Denver - 1614.68
#16- Saint Louis University - 1593.49
#17- Truman State University - 1586.48
#18- Temple University - 1578.43
#19- University of California - 1551.57
#20- University of Northern Colorado - 1550.80
#21- Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville - 1533.88
#22- University of Missouri S&T - 1523.12
#23- Elon University - 1521.79
#24- University of Texas - Arlington - 1519.94
#25- University of Southern California - 1502.69
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
15 comments:
Elon continues to stay in the rankings and UM continues to rise. IMO GMU and UM are the 2 most improved teams in the country.
Elon really needs to play some games so they can fall out.
Just talking SECRHL: Elon is at the basement of their own conference with a .25 win percentage; Western Carolina fell out of the ranking with a .50 win percentage and East Carolina remains unranked despite a .75 win percentage. Agreed, that things need to shake as the final weekends approach.
I think you will see some minor shifts after this weeks ECRHA event and some major shifts after the Feb 20 & 21 Chantilly event. ECU should rise rapidly over Elon, who should drop a bit, but I think Elon is a better team than WCU. I don't see WCU getting ranked. Elon must be getting "rewarded" in the rankings from last year, while ECU is getting "punished" for their D1 record last year.
Anonymous #4 - You are correct. Elon is still ranked because they are being rewarded from previous years still in their records. However, Eastern Carolina is right on their tails and is only 25 points from passing Elon and should be ahead of them after the next weekend of play.
For those of you complaining about California a few weeks ago, do you see how playing a few games can jump you pretty highly in the rankings?
I hope people are beginning to grasp these rankings a little more as the season winds down. The old system we used to rank teams suffered from so much bias from voters in two regions that we had to abandon that structure. This structure eliminates that bias, however, an unwanted result is that the rankings still are biased against teams who were bad the season before. We tweaked the system at the start of the season and it didn't have the desired effect. We will attempt to do it again this off-season.
Why is Grand valley even ranked? they are so terrible....they play shitty teams and just get lucky against good teams. they should be in the top 20.
some people have to ruin it for everyone else... why would you even say something like that. if you dont think a team is good then go out and beat them. dont run your mouth on here.
im sure teams like grand valley and cincinatti would love to play against better teams all year round like the ECRHA teams do..
Elon started off slow, but was also missing players due to study abroad. They have a full team now, no excuses from this point on. This weekend will be crucial to their success.
Grand Valley is a bunch of head cases. Look at the stats with their Mich St. win. Penalty after penalty. Look at what they did after Cincy beat them. The rest of the weekend was full of penalties. Grand Valley gets very lucky if they are still winning when they go nuts.
FORGET WEST CHESTER. FORGET GRAND VALLEY. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, BROCKPORT IS THE BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY IN DII. HANDS DOWN.
grand valley can only be physical, made up of averagely skilled big players, they can't play any other game. Without playing physical hockey and the occasional cheap shot, they won't hack it with the big guns in the east and even down south.
"FORGET WEST CHESTER. FORGET GRAND VALLEY. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, BROCKPORT IS THE BEST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY IN DII. HANDS DOWN."
bold statement, have you seen every team play
alright this is getting quite old..... The ECRHA must be awesome, I heard that half of the guys in the league are going in the NHL draft this year. wow awesome job guys, you truly are amazing. and how about Grand Valley? they win a national championship, and only lose one game this year against i guess they play all weak teams but beat others like (michigan state, michigan, cinnicinatti). man they must really suck.... how about you all quit talking about how good the ECRHA is and about how bad GV is and just play hockey, and if you are that good, win a national championship and prove it to everyone that you are the best.
You guys talk big games, both ways.
At least have the courage to sign your name to the posts, for all we know, it could be Grand Valley writing posts about how shitty they are to make other teams look bad.
Play Hockey.
Stay off message boards.
You all look like idiots.
D2 is a joke plain and simple. The only college division that matters is D1. If teams think they are good then step up and play D1 with the nations best. Playing down against lesser competition proves absolutely nothing.
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