#1- West Chester University - 1876.65
#2- Grand Valley State University - 1852.69
#3- SUNY Brockport - 1792.95
#4- University of Tampa - 1791.88
#5- Rowan University - 1767.75
#6- Neumann University - 1740.93
#7- Missouri State University - 1705.61
#8- SF Austin State - 1701.74
#9- University of Cincinnati - 1700.82
#10- George Mason University - 1629.12
#11- Kennesaw State University - 1628.79
#12- Shippensburg University - 1615.15
#13- UC San Diego - 1608.97
#14- University of Miami - 1603.07
#15- Saint Louis University - 1593.49
#16- Truman State University - 1578.90
#17- Temple University - 1578.43
#18- Metropolitan State College of Denver - 1579.59
#19- University of California, Irvine - 1564.18
#20- University of Northern Colorado - 1555.82
#21- Western Carolina University - 1548.06
#22- Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville - 1533.88
#23- University of Southern California - 1529.43
#24- University of Missouri S&T - 1523.12
#25- Elon University - 1521.79
Monday, February 1, 2010
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
28 comments:
Thanks for the rankings, but again, I ask, can you list the entire rankings (not everytime, just this once) just so we have an idea of where everyone stands (who's boarderline? who's pretty far out yet?). You can email me if you want at fwkrtj@gmail.com
Thanks
Why do you want to know the full rankings so bad? If your school was in the Top 25 they would be listed...
I'm just curious what they are. Other collegiate rankings list those receiving votes outside the top 25 (not the same type of rankings obviously, but you understand what I'm getting at). I'm just curious what the next 20 or so teams are basically...ones still with a shot at Nationals.
I would argue that if your team is not on that list, you have zero shot at nationals...
Elon is 2-6 and 25th in the rankings but I really don't think they have a shot at Nationals at this point, wouldn't you agree?
There's still 3 weeks of season left. It's a bit early to already assume these teams are in (granted about half of them are absolute locks I would agree).
Who is missing that you think has a shot at nationals? I can't see anyone...
Tim,
I don't feel the need to post who the other 51 teams are that aren't ranked, the list is exclusive to 25 teams for a reason.
I would have no problem Answering any questions about the rankings, but i will not be posting more than the 25 teams that are listed.
Posting the other 50 teams just takes away from what the teams that are in the top 25 have done.
I also realize that Elon at 2-6-0 is still ranked. This is because they have only played 8 games. Once they get on the rink and start playing games, other teams will rise.
Who knows... There's still 3 weekends left of games. It just depends on who has how many games left and how they do...etc. I'm just curious who is what rank so we can compare how those "fringe" teams (if you will) do over the next weekend or two.
It makes for good debate if done in a civil manner.
I'm not saying post it for those teams beneift of "being ranked". I was just saying so that we know where the "fringe" teams are. I understand how you do the rankings and that's fine. I appreciate the work. It would just be nice to know what teams are considered fringe by the rankings.
I know these rankings have no affect on who gets voted into Nationals (though I'm willing to bet they are close to identical), so it would be nice to know who is on the "fringe".
Would it be easier to ask you where a couple of teams are in the standings instead of the entire list? I know a few months back you mentioned a couple of teams at the back of the rankings and what their ranks were in reference to a strength of schedule argument.
BTW, not arguing about Elon, just pointing out to "Anonymous" that Elon is not likely considered a tournament team at this point in reference to his argument.
Question. Why does Cincy keep slipping in the polls as Grand Valley stays up. We beat them, they beat us. All the other games in our division have been easy wins.
You guys beat Ball State by 2 goals and Northern Illinois and Michigan Tech by 3 goals each (Michigan Tech by 5 the next time around). I don't think those wins have been "that easy".
For instance, jusging by the box scores, the Ball State game was a 1-goal game until the final minute. In addition, the first Michigan Tech game was a 1-goal game going into the third period.
Grand Valley's dominating weekend against the East Coast division is likely padding their ranking (a win over Michigan St. likely didn't hurt either). Cincinnati is missing a marquee win like that other than beating Grand Valley.
cinci is slipping simply because other teams are gaining stats while they are playing games. if you compare the points from last week cincinatti's points are the same, they did not gain or lose any points. teams simply gained points and passed them on the ranking scale.
Grand valley gained points because they were active over the weekend so they remain on top. they also started the season on top with more points than anyone else so that is also helping them maintain a top ranking.
what about Cal ? they havent been on the list but have stayed at the top of their division, and are still undefeated (2 ties) while the west might not be the strongest, they definitely got some talent out there
Cinci tied UM and Grand Valley won that game 5-2. Cinci hasnt played MSU. GVSU started the season on top and it would take a down season to lose their ranking. If Lindenwood lost 2 games would they still be number 1. I would say yes because 9 times out of ten they will beat you.
Tim, I understand where you are coming from and agree with most of your points. I would just like to keep most of the information close to the chest because it opens up a can of worms.
For those questioning California. They started the season with a low ranking...USC's poor season as well as the WCRHL losing some teams has hurt that division in the standings. That being said, California is very close to cracking the rankings, and depending on how chips fall and so forth, they could rise up as many as 15 spots the next weekend they play. By next weekend, things should change all over the rankings, in all divisions.
As for Cincy, they have gained 162 points from the start of the season over 12 games. Grand Valley has gained 234. Grand Vally lost 47 points for the loss against Cincy and Cincy gained those points. However, Grand Valley benefited from playing and beating Michigan State, a game they gained 50 points from. Additionally, the games over teams like Temple, Pitt and Slippery rock, who besides Temple, are just average to below average teams, in a much harder league. Dominating those games helps. The other teams moving ahead of Cincy is solely because of more games played. Once things are said and done, you should have a good showing of who belong where.
Hope this helps.
To answer anonymous's question from yesterday in reference to who has a shot at Nationals. There are 32 teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better (not including one affiliate). There are 16 Nationals spots as of right now, I believe.
East Carolina, Cal (Berkley), Ball State, and Texas (Arlington) are all within the top 20 in terms of overall winning percentage and none of those 4 teams are ranked. If the season ended today, those unranked teams would have a shot at Nationals. So, in other words, just because a team is ranked, doesn't mean they are going to Nationals and likewise because a team is not ranked, doesn't mean they can't have a shot at Nationals. (disclaimer: this is not a taking a shot at the rankings, just poting out to the poster that the rankings aren't the "end all" to making Nationals at this point of the season)
showing the rankings below 25 would be pointless. Even teams ranked in the top 16 don't always go. I believe Brockport was like 12 or 13 or something last year and didn't get a bid, and i would be surprised if ship or temple get bids this year even though they're ranked. And it's too bad that Grand Valley's "dominance" of the east coast had to be against the teams that have been getting "dominated" by the top 4 in ecrha all year long, with the exception of temple beating neumann.
The Temple vs Grand Valley game was a pretty even game.
The 4-0 score does not do that game justice.
I think i saw people taping that game, where can I view the video?
keep in mind that it was grand valleys third game of the day...
i would like to revise my post.... third game in 8 hours. some great scheduling by the ECHRA
one hell of an excuse considering the fact that Grand Valley hardly had to skate in the first two games.
Also, I would like to point out Grand Valley beat both Michigan and Michigan State with less time between games this year.
valid points...
Scoring zero goals meant the game was close?
yes i guess that that is the case.... i guess Grand Valley is garbage now, temple is amazing
WOW, way to put words in my mouth.
Grand Valley is the best team in the country in DII. They will beat all the teams in the ECRHA when they play them at nationals.
I just thought it was ironic that they felt the need to excuse themselves for winning 4-0.
Too bad Grand Valley didn't have the balls to step up and play DI like Central.
dont mess with the ECRHA. if you listen to some of those guys other conferences shouldnt even send teams to Nationals because the final 8 teams are undoubtebly going to be from the ECRHA
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