#1 - SUNY Brockport - 1895.89
#2 - Grand Valley State University - 1882.66
#3 - West Chester University - 1876.65
#4- Rowan University - 1825.78
#5- University of Tampa - 1791.88
#6- SF Austin State - 1753.12
#7- University of Cincinnati - 1732.01
#8- Neumann University - 1719.76
#9- Missouri State University - 1705.61
#10- University of Miami - 1681.71
#11- UC San Diego - 1675.93
#12- George Mason University - 1629.12
#13- Kennesaw State University - 1628.79
#14- Metropolitan State College of Denver - 1614.68
#15- Saint Louis University - 1593.49
#16- Truman State University - 1586.48
#17- Temple University - 1569.32
#18- Shippensburg University - 1566.96
#19- University of California - 1551.57
#20- University of Northern Colorado - 1550.80
#21- Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville - 1533.88
#22- University of Missouri S&T - 1523.12
#23- Elon University - 1521.79
#24- University of Southern California - 1502.69
#25- Eastern Carolina University - 1498.43
Monday, February 15, 2010
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
14 comments:
yes!!!!!!!!! Brockport is number 1!!! FINALLY. I heard that a few PIHA and MLRH scouts are going to be at the ECHRA/SECRHL Event this weekend. Don't disappoint!
haha scouts
if you cant make the piha or mlrh without scouts youre pretty pathetic. just saying. oh and west chester will be back at #1 once they catch up in games this weekend
Thats funny that you think west chester will be on top. Didn't they lose to brockport?
the ecrha is not the only conference in the ncrha. there are several others, and there are some very talented teams in those conferences. There are some teams that no one is mentioning that are probably as good if not better than the best in the ecrha. tampa, gvsu, and cincy are all going to be tough to beat.
(oh and west chester will be back at #1 once they catch up in games this weekend)
Playing 4 teams with a combined 10 wins will not raise percentages too far, and Brockport also has 4 games this weekend as well against teams with winning records
yea so much for the ecrha last year at nationals when both teams in the finals were from the mcrhl. I wouldnt be suprised to see that again this year.
Cincinnati has a prolific offense but their goaltending is questionable on a National level.
what about defensively? A good team can go far with an average goalie, or are they purely offensive? Haven't seen them play btw, so jw.
Their defense isn't bad by any means but it's not jaw-dropping either. Cincinnati is completely centered around their offense. Shut down their offense and you win.
Cincy has some good players holding up their defense. Chris Weiss who is number 3 in the country in assists (reg season) is a defender. Winrod is a solid guy who will play the body hard on you if you try to get around him. Cincy plays with 6-8 players each game. Goaltending is game to game, but the offense can overcome that.
Why hasn't Grand Valley dropped in the rankings at all? they lost every game last weekend. i don't even think they should go to nationals this year. lets hope those goons stay in michigan.
MIAMI OF OHIO IN NUMBER ONE
wow... love where this is going
west chester outplayed brockport the entire game. brockport got a few lucky bounces here and there which ended up being the deciding factor in the win. wcu will beat brockport in 2 weeks at regionals. and yes i agree there are other conferences with good teams, we'll just have to see what happens at nationals this year
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