#1- Arizona State University - 1798.73
#2- Lindenwood University Gold - 1789.89
#3- Michigan State University - 1775.38
#4- Penn State University - 1760.61
#5- University at Buffalo - 1750.71
#6- West Chester University - 1696.48
#7- UC Santa Barbara Gold - 1674.94
#8- Colorado State University - 1585.15
#9- University of Central Florida - 1583.44
#10- Saddleback College - 1544.69
#11- St. Charles Community College - 1519.45
#12- Lindenwood University Black - 1487.43
#13- Temple University - 1474.23
#14- Grand Valley State University - 1462.06
#15- Texas A&M University - 1459.87
#16- Central Michigan University - 1423.48
#17- University of North Texas - 1387.84
#18- Kennesaw State University - 1358.26
#19- St. Louis Community College - 1329.60
#20- University of Michigan - 1329.26
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
19 comments:
ASU is definitely overrated
i'm from the east and was wondering that myself. they went undefeated but do they just play really weak teams? are they overrated like they're just not #1 material or are they not even top 5 material?
Speaking from a D2 fan, I'm wondering how State and Central compare to the East. Grand Valley played Penn St. and lost 3-2 while State has crushed Grand Valley and Central Michigan has pulled out wins as well. Should be interesting... And as well, don't know about the West or Great Plains area fairs competitively.
National Championships are just around the corner, so we'll find out who is overrated and who is not soon enough. I will say this, UC Santa Barbara Gold and Saddleback are very good teams and ASU hasn't lost to either one yet. Is ASU Top 5...Definitely!
ASU wont win a game
B division should be the closest/most fun tournament to watch.
"ASU wont win a game"
ASU will smoke whatever duster team you play for.
i go to asu and you guys need to relax. asu didnt lose all year in the west but they know that means nothing at nationals. i know lots of the guys on the team. theyre good, theyre definitely not going winless. but people need to stop picking them to win it all too. they just won their region and are gonna go do their best in san jose. theyve never even been to nationals. theyre not a cocky team so stop talking them up
ASU sucks!
I find it funny how many people say ASU sucks. They haven't played outside the WCRHL all year. There's no video of their games online. Unless you play in the WCRHL (in which case ASU smoked you all year) you have never seen the team play ever, so what are you going off of?
asu went undefeated. going undefeated for a whole season is extremely though, and doesn't happen as a fluke, regardless what region you're from. so unless your team went undefeated as well, no one has room to talk.
and no, i'm not from asu or the west.
i heard UCSB almost got ASU in the wcrhl finals...
stop talking about asu, they aint proven nothing yet, i pick penn state
Penn St. loses in the East finals to Buffalo. They beat Grand Valley by 1 in interregional play. Michigan State is my bet since they have beat up on Grand Valley.
i play for asu. stop talking us up. we'll do ok. it'll probably be mich st/lindenwood final. lu wins again.
ASU will do well... they have great scorers, a good goalie, and a coach in a suit... well see what happens at nationals
how about the guy who said asu won't win a game? don't hear you chirpin anymore. beat the best of the east and mopped up the team who won it all.
"don't hear you chirpin anymore. beat the best of the east and mopped up the team who won it all." They should probably give asu the title since they beat the best team. then lost in the quarters....
nope. penn state deserved it, they won it. but that's not the point being made here is it you a retard? the point is people said and i quote "asu won't win a game" and we beat buffalo, penn state, and central michigan then lost to the runners-up. congrats penn state you won and deserved it. but everyone was wrong about asu. is that too hard to understand?
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