#1 - University of Tampa - 1966.80
#2 - SUNY Brockport - 1954.56
#3 - Grand Valley State University - 1934.23
#4- West Chester University - 1893.85
#5- Neumann University - 1802.64
#6- Rowan University - 1800.86
#7- SF Austin State - 1799.73
#8- University of Cincinnati - 1715.69
#9- Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville - 1707.39
#10- Kennesaw State University - 1697.20
#11- Missouri State University - 1697.16
#12- George Mason University - 1681.69
#13- Metropolitan State College of Denver - 1671.43
#14- University of California, San Diego - 1665.61
#15- University of Miami - 1660.26
#16- Truman State University - 1602.08
#17- Shippensburg University - 1582.67
#18- Temple University - 1569.32
#19- University of Missouri S&T - 1538.25
#20- University of California - 1523.75
#21- University of California, Santa Cruz - 1512.99
#22- Saint Louis University - 1505.99
#23- Slippery Rock University - 1497.96
#24- University of California, Davis - 1495.37
#25- University of Texas, Arlington - 1491.67
Monday, March 1, 2010
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
11 comments:
Congrats on Tampa taking over the #1 spot!!!
Love seeing other teams around the country getting the respect they deserve. It was fun playing against you guys in Colorado, and wish you the best of luck this season in Cali!
wont last long
get off of you high horse about the ECRHA... who cares who is ranked where. does it really matter? are you going to play better because you are ranked # 1 in the country. Frankly, GVSU should be be #1 because they won last year and have only lost one game to a Cincinatti team who is apparently pretty good as well. granted they dont play the same strength of schedule as the big ECRHA, but all you the ECRHA does on here is talk about how much better they are then everyone else. you did the same thing last year running around ranting about how good the ECRHA was.. and none of the ECRHA teams even ended up in the Championship game and Neumann got destroyed in the semifinals.
Tampa got destroyed by GVSU last year but had a great year this year so they deserve to be near the top. west chester probably deserves to be up there too along with Brockport. We all know this. Is there really a reason to freak out about a team taking over the #1 spot and talk them down because of it. Its getting old.
Personally, I hope that the ECRHA struggles at nationals and GVSU meets Cincinnati or Tampa in the finals just so they show everyone that the ECRHA isnt as great as they talk themselves up to be.
You do realize I wasn't going trying to put down Tampa right? I was being honest, that is a good bunch of guys, i remember what happened to them in Colorado with equipment getting lost, and then our team sat next to them at Olive Garden and they were a funny group of guys.
The Last Word obviously you have some sort of inferiority complex you need to deal with.
Also, Anonymous is right, whoever wins the ECRHA regionals will most likely take over the #1 spot when the next batch of rankings come out.
Also, didn't the ECRHA only lose 3 games at nationals last year in DII?
Granted they didn't win the entire thing, but that shouldn't take away from what the teams did...
ECRHA Fan I dont think he was directing the post to you... I think that he was posting in response to the anonymous post saying wont last long... because at least i take that as a "smart" comment seems to say the ECRHA is better. your post does not say anything about the ECRHA other than the title of your post.
Grand Valley is not as good as they were last year. They are still good, don't get me wrong, but I don't see them winning it all this season. Cincinnati won't get far either. Cincinnati matches up well with Grand Valley, but they came REALLY close to losing to Ball State in the MCRHL semi's (they won in OT)...look at the box score if you don't believe me.
All these top D2 teams need to stop sandbagging and play D1, where the real teams and big boys play
Couldn't that also be a WCRHL person thinking maybe CAL or UCSD would get ranked #1?
Couldn't it be a GVSU person saying that once they get to nationals and win, they will be ranked #1?
You would never know, unless they signed with name and school...
...The Last Word just has an inferiority complex, its okay...
PS, West Chester isn't good...
hahaha who said west chester isnt good? dub c is the best team in the country you moron
West Chester is not at all the best. They are very good, but do not match the talent level of Brockport or Nuemann when they have a full roster.
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