#1 - West Chester University - 2029.65
#2 - University of Tampa - 1966.80
#3 - Grand Valley State University - 1934.23
#4- SUNY Brockport - 1894.03
#5- Neumann University - 1860.15
#6- Rowan University - 1860.06
#7- SF Austin State - 1799.73
#8- University of California, San Diego - 1757.26
#9- University of Cincinnati - 1715.69
#10- Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville - 1707.39
#11- Kennesaw State University - 1697.20
#12- Missouri State University - 1697.16
#13- George Mason University - 1681.69
#14- Metropolitan State College of Denver - 1671.43
#15- University of Miami - 1660.26
#16- Truman State University - 1602.08
#17- Temple University - 1550.76
#18- University of Missouri S&T - 1538.25
#19- Slippery Rock University - 1527.34
#20- Saint Louis University - 1505.99
#21- California State University, Chico - 1497.96
#22- University of Texas, Arlington - 1491.67
#23- University of California, Davis - 1484.86
#24- Shippensburg University - 1481.79
#25- University of Northern Colorado - 1477.64
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
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The Rankings Explained
Since the conclusion of the season both founders set out to find the best solution to answer the age old question, “Who’s #1?” After much search, the answer was to use a mathematical formula to calculate the answer. Removing the human element from the voting would likely result in less biased rankings towards individual teams and regions.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
The solution would be found in the ELO chess rating system. They system was created to rank chess players by another means that wins, losses and draws. The system uses a mathematical formula to reward each person for impressive feats and punish them for lesser impressive feats. Because chess and inline hockey are two different animals, the general equation had to be changed to allow for more hockeys related factors into the equation.
Using the FIFA Women’s World Rankings as a guideline (Elo Based), we managed to change the rankings to suit the nature of our sport. The rankings include the importance of the game, the outcome of the game, the expected result of the game, and the goal differential of the game when calculating a result. To better explain the way the rankings work I give you the following examples (all team start with a ranking of 1500):
Lindenwood University (1500) vs. UMSL (1500): If Lindenwood won the regular season game 4-3; they would be awarded 15 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 15 points. However, if the game was won 12-2, Lindenwood would earn 39.38 points for the victory and UMSL would be docked 39.38 points. Additionally, the importance of the game could change, using the national title game as the example, with both teams having equal ratings Lindenwood would be awarded 52.5 points for a 6-3 win.
However, as you could assume, two teams having the same rating would be rare. Each teams point total carries over from one week to the next and from one season to the next. The following is a example of two teams with different point values and the different results it can produce.
Lindenwood University (1746.38) vs. Illinois State (1360.88): There are a few things that you can determine because of the vast difference in each teams rating (385.5). The first is that Lindenwood is expected to win the game. The second is that Illinois State winning the game would be a much bigger accomplishment that Lindenwood winning the game. The maximum points Lindenwood can earn from this game is 7.72, which would mean they won by at least 10 goals. However, on the flip side, if Illinois State was to win the game by at least 10 goals they could earn as many as 71.03 points. This is based on the projection that Lindenwood would win the match-up 90% of the time.
As the two examples show, there are a bunch of positives when using this system. For starters, once a team has achieved a high rating, it becomes difficult for them to increase it without playing a higher level of competition. This rewards regions that have more competitive teams. It also rewards teams who travel out of the region and win games against other higher rated teams. For example, last season, Towson and Army both played James Madison who would have had a higher rating that both visiting teams. In the games, Army and Towson both won handily and would have increased their ratings while negatively hurting James Madison. But, the hidden bonus is they now can bring those rating points back into their region. Those points then become spread out over the entire region as the season progresses and teams win and lose.
For the ratings system to work, each game has to have a certain amount of value attached to it. In the system we will be using five different levels to rate the importance of any give game. The first level is the lowest level of importance; it contains all pre-season exhibition games. The second level includes all regular-season regional games, as well as cross-divisional exhibition games. Level three includes all cross-regional games and invitational based tournaments, like WinterFest. The fourth level includes all regional playoff games and the fifth and final level includes all national playoff games.
41 comments:
brockport loses one game and drops near 70pts in the rankings and falls to fourth? can that be right?
ok so I have had enough of everyone complaining. Who really cares about where you are ranked. All of the teams from the east sure talk a big game and when it comes down to it, you have only played "good teams" from your own region. no one knows who is going to be the top dog until we get to nationals. stop complaining about the rankings. Everyone says that the east is soo strong and the midwest and Southeast are sooo weak, etc... well after the top four teams in the east, where is the strength... temple, no... shippensberg, no.... ha ha ? ok so you beat each other, thats awesome. GVS beat michigan state, arguably the second or third best team in the entire nation right now, who gave Lindenwood all they could handle... and yet GV is 3rd in the rankings after losing only one game (to a Cincinnati team who has some quality players). Tampa is second, after going undefeated... enough said - granted they lost 13-2 or something last year at nationals vs gv (i dont have the energy to look it up again)... anyway, just because you go undefeated or have a good season in the ECRHA doesnt make your team god of all that is roller hockey like all of the teams make it sound like.
fellas, let it play out to see who is the best, its only three weeks away... can you wait that long, or will we have to witness the temper tantrums that go on because west chester, brockport, rowan, and neumann arent 1,2,3,4 in the rankings? because obviously they are the best four teams in the entire world of roller hockey. Im sick of hearing it.
Playoff games are weighted more heavily then regular season games. The rankings are correct.
hockey goddess...sorry to say it, but besides tampa and gvsu, there arent any other good teams in the country in d2 except west chester, brockport, neumann, and rowan...which are the best 4 teams in the country...youll see at nationals, esp when wcu wins
Anonymous said...Really no good teams in the rest of the country? UCSD has played well at the last two nationals, and has been deep enough to win. Missouri State made the final four last year and did not lose any players. Cincy beat GVSU this season and they are attending the event. There are others out there that will surprise you. SIUE, GMU, CAL. You can talk up the east that is fine but don't talk down other regions because you have not seen them. Have some respect for the entire league, without them you would not be posting on here.
George Mason is not good enough to make a deep run at nationals.
SIUE was a joke at nationals last year, hopefully they have improved.
That is all I have.
Cincinnati is definitly going to be the suprise team in DII at Nationals this year. They have a shorter bench then most teams but have some skilled players who can put it away if they are given the opportunity. As for SIUE I was surprised to see that they beat out Missouri State. But if they are anything like the team they brought to nationals last year, then better luck next year.
dont you guys have studying to do??
Sadly, I won't be heading out to California this year. Happily, I will be heading to Germany for a family vacation.
With that being said: I love these rankings and work hard doing them. Thankfully, the NCRHA does it right and brings a large contingent of teams to nationals to determine who is the best on the rink at the end. All the arguing this year will finally be put to rest in April.
Until then, please keep it civil, I would hate to have to censor people or force people to sign their comments.
Thanks,
Rick
Cincinnati will not make it far...mark my words.
I agree, they don't have the depth. Just don't see them being able to keep up with other teams when it gets late in the game.
Many people probably would have never thought GVS would win the division last year because the mcrhl was discredited. Many predicted a west chester vs. neumann final. Cincinnati was one of those teams that should have recieved a bid last year but didnt.
neumann vs tampa final depending on how pools form
neumann lost to west chester all 3 times this year. what a joke of a comment. and west chester will dominate gvsu this year like they shouldve last year
TAMPA vs. Neumann. Haha good joke but seriously. Neumann is nowhere near the team they have been in the past. Tampa had the show ran on them last year. The GVSU team is a better team than West Chester played last year at Nationals so I dont think they will get dominated as you say they will.
west chester vs. grand valley in the finals
metro st denver vs stephen f austin...guarantee it.
Going out on a limb...
Brockport gets its rest and comes back with a vengence....
Brockport vs West Chester
It will be Tampa vs either Westchester or Nuemann
Garabage.. East Coast Garabage.
West Chester vs Neumann........or
Brockport vs Rowan.........or
West Chester vs. Rowan........ or
Neumann vs Rowan......... or
West Chester vs Brockport.......or
Brockport vs Neumann........
these are the ONLY possibilities. GUARANTEED!
I would be willing to bet on any one of the top 4 from the east against any other team in the country.
Tampa = no talent
GVSU = no talent
Cinci = no talent
SIUE = no talent
are you will to blow any team from the east coast as well...
GSJag you make me laugh. Post more like this so I can keep laughing. I love it.
neumann and GVS in the same pool, i guess well see how good these teams are
oh wait isnt the point of nationals to see who the best team is?.......
nope we already know who's better... we just have nationals so the ECRHA teams can show up and walk out with the trophy. because there will be no competition.
Yea I was sad to see that not happen last year when Rowan got rocked by Central (8-1) and Neumann got run over (10-4). Please fuel the rest of the league with more talk about the ECRHA.
GSJag is back. Took long enough. Still bringing smiles to all of DII roller hockey fans.
I dont understand how the ecrhl thinks that they will run the show so easily, as they all are stating. if you look at the past national championships, neumann is the only one to get there and do something. i guess we will just have to wait and see how amazing you all are. im so scared to see what the ecrhl will do if they lose.... because according to them, they will win hands down. what a joke
the final will be GVSU and Tampa, there will be no ECRHA teams in the championship.
The east is by far the best conference. Drexel could make the final four at nationals if it were between all of the other conferences playing for the title. Brockport will win their bracket. West Chester theirs, along with Rowan and Neumann. You will see the east take down teams one by one. Depth, speed, intelligence, stamina, and skill are all attributes which are only given to schools of the ECRHA. Save your money and stay home.
The East has the strongest region by the sole reason that they can send four competitive teams to nationals with a realistic chance of winning. With that being said, the other regions can still each send one or two legitimate national contenders. However, these one or two teams will be just as good as the East teams come nationals. GVSU, Tampa, UCSD, Cincy, and Missouri St are all very good teams. Anyone thinking the East will definitely have four final four teams is just creating controversy for this discussion. Is it possible? Yes. Will it happen? I'm thinking not.
Depth, speed, intelligence, stamina, and skill are all attributes which are only given to schools of the ECRHA. Save your money and stay home.
How can you state something like this? attributes only given to the ecrha? where is your data on this material? have you been across the country analyzing each team on their speed? clocking how fast they can skate? have you had each team take a test to calculate intelligence? have you put each team through a test to see if they have a stamina compared to yours? and the skill part, how did you compare that one? i would like to see your data on all of these. it must be pretty highly detailed and have take you a great amount of time. you know nothing about other teams around the nation, so quit acting as if you do. the echra isnt the god to roller hockey, ive heard enough.
Serious question about the rankings here...
How do the rankings handle ties? Is it as if the game was never played...
While I could see a UMSL and Lindenwood tie at Nationals not affecting either teams ratings much (Lindenwood is #1 and UMSL #5)
Long Beach State # 9 tied #15 Ohio State at Natty's is Long Beach "punished" is Ohio State "rewarded"
Because of the way D1 pools were structured this year at Natty's no Huge upset is going to take place in the pools, but what about in D2
when #13 George Mason tied #2 Tampa?
It seems to me that your formula is unclear on how it handles ties at Nationals and teams UMSL, Ohio State, and George Mason aren't given credit for playing a better team to a tie.
how about the guy who said asu won't win a game? don't hear you chirpin anymore. beat the best of the east and mopped up the team who won it all.
oops. meant to post that last one on the 'B' division rankings. my bad.
so as stated all along, the ecrha dominates! end of story!
I am a scout from the Los Angeles Kings. I was fortunate enough to see some of the games played by some of the ECRHA teams in the NCRHA National Championships this past week.
I would like to talk to each and every player on the the four Division II teams about their chances to play in the NHL this upcoming season. The draft is coming up quick here in june and there is a lot we have to do to get their names out there so quickly. I think these guys have the talent to show up some of the current players in the NHL and it would be a shame to let the available talent go to waste.
Team representatives, please contact me at LAscout@losangeles.nhl.com
Thank you
The 4 ECRHA teams had great runs at nationals, it was clear that the winner of the rowan v wcu game was going to take the title home. luckily wcu got a bounce of a leg to win the game.
Neumann should have had a cake walk to the finals but slipped up against tampa. The top half of the bracket was weak.
Neumann didnt slip up at all. They were outplayed by a Tampa team that had a hot goalie and was determined to revenge there loss from last year.
neumann was clearly the better team, but you are right, a hot goalie can win you anything, too bad rowans goalie wasnt hot, they would have dominated their way to the ship
soo is this ever going to get updated? see the final rankings for the year?
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